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Head Race Predictor
Pick the head race you are training for. You get an indicative winning time with a margin for wind and conditions, plus the matching speeds for training.
Boston (USA) · October · 4,800 m (calculated with 4,700 m: distance when steering tight lines)
Winning time · Men D · 1x · 4.8 km
18:54.2 – 19:53.5
Fastest winning time we found in this category: 18:15.2 (2014). That is how fast you need to be when an exceptionally strong crew enters or conditions are favourable.
Based on 42 editions of 6 head races between 2011 and 2026; not every edition was used. More below.
Training targets
The basis is the winning pace of this race: 2:03.8 per 500m. Row the pieces at or just above that pace, shorter ones a little faster. That way you learn how winning pace feels, and what you can just about hold with room for a final push.
Bar: speed per session (right = faster). Tick: winning pace of this race.
| Steady state | 2:18.8 – 2:23.8 |
| 2.000 m | 2:00.6 – 2:03.98:02.5 – 8:15.6 |
| 1.500 m | 1:59.9 – 2:03.25:59.7 – 6:09.5 |
| 1.000 m | 1:58.9 – 2:02.23:57.8 – 4:04.3 |
| 5 min | 1:59.4 – 2:02.61,220 – 1,260 m |
| 4 min | 1:58.8 – 2:02.1980 – 1,010 m |
| 3 min | 1:58.1 – 2:01.4740 – 760 m |
How is this number calculated?
All sources are combined into one reference. From the clean winning times (boats with a penalty are left out) of Head of the Charles (USA), Tromp Boat Races, Heineken Roeivierkamp, Skiffhead, Tweehead and Head of the River Amstel (NED) we calculate one standard speed with the De Maas correction factors (age and boat type, long distance). We convert it to the distance of your race with a distance factor measured at the Heineken Roeivierkamp: the same crews over 2,500 and 5,000 m. Age and boat type always follow De Maas, so that for example a pair is faster than a single and an older category never comes out faster than a younger one. On the Amstel the current flows slightly with the crews; we apply one correction for that. We also apply a small correction per race for its own conditions, such as the Roeivierkamp 5,000 m that is rowed on the second day. We use the distance when steering tight lines through the bends, as winners do who start at the front and choose their own line.
Why these races: many events and large fields, on water with little or no current. Several editions per race give a good picture of the influence of wind. Editions with a different course or incomplete results were not used. Head races such as the Head of the Thames (London) are left out, because the strong stream makes times incomparable between years.
About half of the previous winning times fall within the range. Outliers caused by a tailwind or headwind, or an exceptionally strong crew, fall outside it. It remains an indication: wind, current and who enters differ every year.
Getting faster
Not reaching this speed in races or training yet?
Rowing better and faster is possible with Beat Your Best and with an e-learning course from ClubLearning.